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Fall Waterfowl Forecast
courtesy of Delta Waterfowl
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
announced that it will be discontinuing the use of the current Fall
Flight Index, stating "the utility of this index has been called
into question." The accuracy and misuse of the index as an actual
population number had been raising the ire of duck hunters in all
flyways. The Fall Flight Index was 105 million in 1999 and 90 million in
2000. The 105 million was the highest number generated since the
forecast began in 1970.
Delta Waterfowl, the source of much of
this "question," has been urging the Service to come up with a
more biologically based and reliable way to give duck hunters an idea of
what to expect. It wrote in a letter to Jon Andrew, Chief of the
Migratory Bird Office, "The Delta Waterfowl Foundation requests
your consideration for a change in the development and use of the Fall
Flight Index (FFI). There is a growing level of discontent in this
figure and we feel strongly that a different approach is needed."
One of the most serious misuses of the
figure is that although it is an index, how one year compares to the
next, it was being used as an actual indication of how many real ducks
were in the fall flight. According to Delta Waterfowl Vice President
Lloyd Jones, "The FFI was being grossly misrepresented, even by
some in the waterfowl community. There are not 105 or even 90 million
ducks. For example a reasonable growth rate is applied to the spring
breeding numbers the results reflect, there are 50-60 million at best,
half of what some have been reporting. The FFI was misleading duck
hunters, creating expectations that were unrealistic and eroding duck
hunter confidence in waterfowl managers. It needed to be changed."
Jones was complimentary of the Service.
"This decision of the Service is clearly a reflection of its
interest and commitment to waterfowlers. It recognized the problem and
is attempting to fix it. Jon Andrew and his staff have a large, complex
and challenging task in all of their responsibilities with waterfowl.
They made an important and bold move on behalf of duck hunters by
committing to change the current forecast process."
The Service is working on alternatives to
the FFI. Delta Waterfowl has made several recommendations to the Service
ranging from using an annual production forecast to using mallards, a
species with the most data, as an indicator on the status of all
species.
Delta Waterfowl
1-888-987-3695
www.deltawaterfowl.org
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