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Breeding Duck Numbers Down
courtesy of Ducks Unlimited
The latest numbers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) confirm
what most duck hunters and waterfowl experts suspected: Breeding duck
numbers are down this year. In its annual report on breeding ducks and
spring habitat conditions, the FWS estimates that total breeding duck
populations fell 14 percent from a year ago, to 31.2 million birds.
Experts are pointing to dry conditions and a late spring in key breeding
areas as the cause of this decline.
"Overall, the numbers in this report are right in line with what our own
field staff have observed," says Ducks Unlimited's Chief Biologist,
Bruce Batt. "In general, habitat conditions are very poor, most species
populations are down, and production is expected to be quite low in the
west and the north."
Despite reduced populations, Batt points out that, "experienced hunters
have learned that the most compelling factor determining hunting success
is the weather, as was so dramatically demonstrated last year. Most will
hope that the cold, wet spring will be mirrored this fall and winter to
bring the birds back into traditional wintering locations where the
annual hunting traditions can be renewed with family and friends." Dr.
Scott Yaich, DU's Director of Conservation Planning says, "It's likely
that the seasons will be more conservative than last year, which most
hunters anticipate when populations decline." Ducks Unlimited does not
participate in the regulations setting process.
Spring conditions were extremely dry across the north-central United
States and south-central Canada, where the majority of North America's
waterfowl breed. Total May pond counts were down 41 percent from last
year and are 45 percent below the long-term average. That is the second
lowest total pond count since 1974, and the lowest number ever recorded
in Canada.
The water problem was exacerbated when winter-like conditions hit the
prairies in May. Experts say the freezing temperatures halted migration
for two weeks. "Cold weather and snow storms froze the limited run-off
water that may have otherwise been available, and in the prairies and
parklands, some nests were likely lost to the weather, but most birds
were simply prevented from breeding," says Batt. "This, of course, would
have the greatest effect on early-nesting species such as mallards, and
pintail."
When conditions are poor on the prairies, waterfowl experts say ducks
will migrate farther north to sit out the summer. Survey results
indicate that many prairie-nesting species, such as mallards, shovelers,
pintails, and blue-winged teal, flew over the prairies and parklands to
the boreal forest, where wetland conditions are more stable. Ducks
Unlimited has been working to conserve habitat in the boreal forest, and
other northern habitats for this very reason.
"There may be limited production by some of these displaced birds, but
based on the overall trends we should expect poor production and a
reduced fall flight this year," says Batt. "However, these same factors
set the stage for recovery when conditions improve. These birds will
survive better this summer than they would if they had bred, and they
will all be at least two years of age when they do breed. Past research
has demonstrated that older birds are generally more successful nesters
than yearlings."
In the traditional survey area, the breeding mallard population is an
estimated 7.5 million birds, 5 percent fewer than last year, and 8
percent below the goals of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan
(NAWMP). Surveys of mallards conducted in the Great Lakes states
(Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) indicated the population had
increased from 780,000 in 2001 to 1 million this year. The U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service uses the combined estimates of mallards from the
traditional survey area and the Great Lakes states (8.5 million) to set
hunting regulations through the Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM)
process.
Declining pintail and scaup populations continue to be of concern.
According to this year's survey, the number of breeding pintails is the
lowest ever estimated since surveys began in 1955. "We are deeply
concerned about the extremely low status of this species," says Batt.
"Pintails are the earliest spring migrants and would have been most
impacted by the late snow and cold conditions. There are probably more
birds outside of the survey area, as they are very drought-sensitive,
and will leave prime prairie breeding areas shortly after arriving if
moisture conditions are not adequate. Nevertheless, the situation with
pintail populations is very serious. They have been below the NAWMP goal
since 1976, and even if there are more pintails than estimated,
production will be down this year due to the dry conditions."
Breeding scaup populations slipped an estimated 5 percent from last
year, making this the second lowest scaup count on record. At 3.5
million birds, scaup are 44 percent below their NAWMP goal. "Ducks
Unlimited is involved in a number of research projects to identify the
problem with scaup populations to find methods to correct it," explains
Batt.
Breeding blue-winged teal numbers, at 4.2 million, fell 27 percent from
last year's estimate. The green-winged teal breeding population slid an
estimated 7 percent from last year. Most other species experienced
declines from last year's estimates, including gadwall (down 17
percent), redheads (down 21 percent), canvasbacks (down 16 percent), and
northern shovelers (down 30 percent to 2.3 million). Only gadwall,
green-winged teal, and shovelers remain above NAWMP goals.
On the bright side, Batt says the number of birds and prospects for
reproduction are generally better in the eastern survey area, which is
not part of the traditional survey area. At 4.4 million birds, the total
breeding duck population in the eastern survey area is 32 percent higher
than last year. Habitat conditions in the eastern areas of Canada and
the United States were good to excellent in most regions. Late ice
break-up caused poor early spring conditions in some locations, but
overall, production is expected to be good in the east.
The cold, late spring conditions also persisted across most Arctic
breeding areas where Arctic goose production will be reduced. These
populations are generally in good shape, and most will not be seriously
impacted by this one-year problem, although one population, the Atlantic
Flyway Canada goose, had just recovered to levels where hunting seasons
were being allowed again.
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